Applying Holt’s linear method to estimate future trends of HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years in Cabo Verde

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years for Cabo Verde from 1990 to 2020 to predict future trends of HIV prevalence over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear method. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.8 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years will continue to decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, policymakers are encouraged to scale up HIV testing services and antiretroviral therapy coverage among key populations.