PREDICTION OF HIV PREVALENCE AMONG INDIVIDUALS AGED 15-49 YEARS IN SOUTH SUDAN USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years for South Sudan from 1990 to 2020 to predict future trends of HIV prevalence over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years will increase from around 2.3% in 2021 to about 2.5% in 2030. Therefore, we encourage authorities to scale up HIV testing services, ART coverage and HIV prevention programs in order to curb HIV transmission among this age group.