PROJECTION OF HIV PREVALENCE AMONG INDIVIDUALS AGED 15-49 YEARS IN GABON USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years for Gabon from 1990 to 2020 to predict future trends of HIV prevalence over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years will continue to decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, it is essential to address main factors that contribute to HIV spread among high-risk groups such as adolescents, MSM, sex workers and transgender women. Focus should be directed to HIV prevention strategies and HIV case detection among key populations.